Tarrytown, Austin: Luxury Market Update...

(Area defined by: South of 35th St., North of Lake Austin & West of MO-Pac)

- There are currently 61 luxury homes available in this area with 4 others currently under contract. Over the last 3 months 22 luxury homes have sold. At this rate of absorption there is 8.5 months worth of inventory. Things have been slow in Tarrytown. The 4 pending homes signify a continued rate of slower activity, and I anticipate activity to be down from last month.

(If you would like a copy of the graph email me and I'll forward it to you.)

The activity in the $500k to $999k range has been the most active. There are currently 42 homes available and the 4 pending homes are all in this price range. Over the last 3 months 15 homes have sold. With this rate of absorption there is 8.4 months of inventory, which is statistically almost a carbon copy of Tarrytown on the whole. This price band saw its’ most intense activity this summer, when many other areas in Austin were slow. 12 homes sold in May, 15 sold in June and 8 sold in July. The Days on market was trending downwards and was as low as 37 DOM for sold homes in July. But, as the summer wound to a close activity slowed too and DOM has risen to a current level of 101 days. Although traffic has slowed, prices are holding firm.

The activity in the ULTRA market, $999 and up, has been slow. There are currently 19 active homes available and no pending sales in this market. Over the last 3 months 7 ULTRA homes have sold, yielding an absorption rate of 2.3 homes a month. At this rate there is currently 44.3 months of inventory. Earlier in the summer 3.3 homes sold a month on average. The days on market during this time was lower as luxury homes were selling faster. However, as the summer progressed the days on market rose from 44.5 in May to 128 in July. The values in this segment are also holding firm. Sellers appear to be comfortable waiting for realistic offers, even though the market is not saturated with real buyers.

Final Thoughts: The activity below $1 million has been solid and accounts for the majority of the sales. The ULTRA market has been slower this summer and is overly saturated at this time. Both markets had busy summers and cooled as the summer season ended. Tarrytown is ever-popular and closer and closer to downtown every year, although the fall has been quiet, keep an eye on Tarrytown year next spring!

The Fastest-Growing Cities In The U.S.

Lower housing prices, shorter commutes and a more pro-business attitude are driving the cities on our list.

The U.S.' emerging cities are not experiencing the kind of super-charged growth one sees in urban areas of the developing world, notably China and India. But unlike Europe, North America's population is slated to expand by well over 100 million people by 2050--much of this growth in the U.S. and much of it driven by continued immigration.

In the course of the next 40 years, the biggest gainers won't be behemoths like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, but less populous, easier-to-manage cities that are both affordable and economically vibrant.

Americans may not be headed to small towns or back to the farms, but they are migrating to smaller cities. Over the past decade, the biggest migration of Americans has been to cities with between 100,000 and 1 million residents. In contrast, notes demographer Wendell Cox, regions with more than 10 million residents suffered a 10% rate of net outmigration, and those between 5 million and 10 million lost a net 2.4%.

In the U.S. it's all about expanding options. A half-century ago, the bright and ambitious had relatively few choices: It was New York, Chicago or Los Angeles. In the 1990s a series of other, fast-growing cities—San Jose, Calif.: Miami; San Diego; Houston; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; and Phoenix --emerged with the capacity to accommodate national and even global businesses.

Now several relatively small-scale urban regions are reaching the big leagues. These include at least two cities in Texas: Austin and San Antonio. Economic vibrancy and growing populations drive these cities, which ranked first and second, respectively, among large cities on Forbes' "Best Places For Jobs" list.

Austin and San Antonio are increasingly attractive to both companies and skilled workers seeking opportunity in a lower-cost, high-growth environment. Much the same can be said about the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina, and Salt Lake City, two other U.S. cities that have been growing rapidly and enjoy excellent prospects.

One key advantage for these areas is housing prices. Even after the real estate bust, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, barely one-third of median-income households in Los Angeles can afford to own a median-priced home; in New York only one-fourth can. In the four American cities on our list, between two-thirds and four-fifths of the median-income households can afford the American Dream.

Advocates of dense megacities often point out that many poorer places, including old Rust Belt cities, enjoy high levels of affordability, while more prosperous regions, such as New York, do not. But lack of affordability itself is a problem; areas with the lowest affordability, including New York, also have suffered from high rates of domestic outmigration. The true success formula for a dynamic region mixes affordability with a growing economy.

Our future cities also are often easier for workers and entrepreneurs alike. Despite the presence of the nation's best-developed mass transit systems, the longest commutes can be found in the New York area; the worst are for people living in the boroughs of Queens and Staten Island. As a general rule, commuting times tend to be longer than average in some other biggest cities, including Chicago and Washington.

In contrast, the average commutes in places like Raleigh or San Antonio are as little as 22 minutes on average--roughly one-third of the biggest-city commutes. Figure over a year, and moving to these smaller cities can add 120 hours or more a year for the average commuter to do productive work or spend time with the family.

In developing this list we have focused on many criteria--affordability, ease of transport and doing business--that are often ignored on present and future "best places" lists. Yet ultimately it is these often mundane things, not grandiose projects or hyped revivals of small downtown districts, that drive talented people and companies to emerging places.

5 Fastest Growing Cities In America

Raleigh-Durham, N.C.

Even in hard times this low-density, wide-ranging urban area has repeatedly performed well on Forbes' list of the best cities for jobs. The area is a magnet for technology firms fleeing the more expensive, congested and highly regulated northeast corridor. One big problem obstructing the region's ascendancy has been air connections. But Delta recently announced a large-scale expansion of flights there from around the country. Population growth will likely be lead by educated millennials seeking affordable housing and employment opportunities. Today the region has 1.7 million residents; the State of North Carolina projects it will grow to 2.4 million by 2025.

Austin, Texas Austonites tend to be smug, but they have good reason. The central Texas city ranked as the No. 1 large urban area for jobs in our last Forbes survey. Along with Raleigh-Durham, Austin is an emerging challenger for high-tech supremacy with Silicon Valley. The current area's population is 1.7 million and is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades. Austin owes much both to its public sector institutions (the state government and the main Campus of the University of Texas) and its expanding ranks of private companies--including foreign ones--swarming into the city's surrounding suburban belt.

Salt Lake City, Utah

Once seen as a Mormon enclave, the greater Salt Lake urban area--with roughly 1 million people--has every sign of emerging as a major world player with a wider appeal. The church still plays a critical role, in part by financing a massive redevelopment of the city's now rather dowdy city core. The area's population has doubled since the early 1970s and will grow another 100,000 by 2025 to well over 1.1 million. New companies are flocking to this business-friendly region, particularly from self-imploding California. Increasing national and global connections through Delta's hub will tie this once isolated city closer with the wider world economy.

San Antonio, Texas

Last year this historic Texas metropolis--home to the Alamo--ranked second on our list "best cities for jobs" among larger cities. The region has been growing rapidly to well over 2.1 million. As the economy, particularly in Texas, recovers, an already strong health care sector will be joined by an expanding industrial base. One key factor in San Antonio's favor: stable house prices --even by Texas standards. PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s most recent risk index, which is a two-year measure, lists San Antonio as having the lowest risk from falling prices among large Texas cities.

Oklahoma City, Okla.

Oklahoma City--with its business-friendly environment and abundant oil and natural gas reserves--ranked No. 11 in Forbes' list of the best big cities for jobs. A KPMG study named it the least costly metro area to do business among U.S. cities with populations between 1 million and 2 million, and according to the Census Bureau Community Survey, it has the third-shortest commute time among the 52 largest cities. Such factors--plus its exciting new basketball star, Kevin Durant--have definitely attracted plenty of new residents. An article in the Sacramento Bee reported that many Californians were migrating to the former Dust Bowl town in search of jobs and more stable housing prices, and its population, at 1.2 million, is expected to grow 9.8% in the next 10 years, according to the Greater Oklahoma City Partnership.

The full article can be found:http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/the-fastest-growing-cities-in-the-us.html

The Texas Coast, the Next Big Thing...

We live in uncertain times. Financial assets are depressed and volatile. Returns and yields on those assets are dismal. Who would have guessed a few years ago that a savings account paying 1 percent interest would appear attractive? Investors all over the country are looking for safe investment with a strong upside, but for Texans it is right before their eyes – the Texas coast.

Texas coastal real estate is reminiscent of Edgar Allan Poe’s story “The Purloined Letter” where the letter could not be found because it was in plain sight. Interestingly, Texas has the world's 12th largest economy but it is home to the least expensive coastal real estate in the United States. Texas beach towns like Port Aransas, Rockport, Port O’Connor and Padre Island continue to be top vacation destinations for families, vacationers and sportsmen alike. The coast offers nine months of beach season, world-class fishing and average highs of 69°F in February and 93°F in August. The Texas coast is conveniently located within five hours of more than 85% of the State’s population and greater numbers of vacationers are visiting every year. In a time where people are looking for solid investments and safe places to park money, we can all agree the Texas Coast looks very promising.

Theodore Roosevelt once said, “Every person who invests in well-selected real estate in a growing section of a prosperous community adopts the surest and safest method of becoming financially independent. For real estate is the basis of wealth." These words could not be more true. Following TR’s wise words and the time honored investment rule “buy low, sell high,” one of today’s smartest investments is in a second home or investment property. As government spending and taxation increase people are more attracted to hard assets that provide immediate tax benefits, a hedge against inflation, the potential for significant appreciation and a good tan.

National headlines about real estate still cause alarm and many people are justifiably apprehensive about real estate. However, markets across the United States are vastly different and where you buy is often as important as when you buy. Florida has a glut of beachfront condos and homes available for deeply discounted prices. Yet, Flordia real estate is languishing on the market because of investor and second home buyers’ fears. Even after steep discounts property prices in Florida remain high relative to Texas. The average price of a condo in Destin is over $560k! Florida real estate was “discovered”…decades ago. The long term investment potential in Florida has been realized by those who purchased property in the 1970’s and early 1980’s.

In contrast, Texas has weathered the economic storm far better than most and the coast’s growth potential is unrivaled. After 16 months of job losses nationally, the state's economy experienced its third month of positive annual employment growth. The growth rate from July 2009 to July 2010 was 1.3 percent compared with a rate close to zero percent for the rest of the nation. The state’s private sector posted a positive annual employment growth rate of 1.2 compared with a zero percent growth for the rest of the nation.

Earlier this year Forbes ranked the top ten fastest growing cities in the United States; four of them are in Texas. Encouraged by a healthy economy, a comparatively low cost of living, no state income tax and great weather, Texas’ population is expected to grow a staggering 66% over the next 20 years, bringing the total population to roughly 40 million by 2030.

Another Forbes article listed the nation’s top 20 cities for jobs; of the 20 cities nine of them are in Texas. A pro-business environment has encouraged many major corporations to relocate their headquarters here. The state is now home to 58 Fortune 500 companies, more than any other state. They include Exxon-Mobile, Dell, Fluor, and J. C. Penny to name a few.

All signs point toward a bright future as Texas continues to grow and prosper. Furthermore, the long-term prospect for second homes in Texas is very strong. Currently, 38.7 million people in the United States are ages 50 to 59 and 45.3 million people are between 40 and 49 — prime years for buying a second home. Individuals in these groups are still in their peak-earning years. They have both the means and desire to purchase second homes as an enjoyable investment or retirement destination.

When one considers Texas’ economic strength, job creation and population growth it’s understandable that available coastline is dwindling. Of the 375 miles that make up the Texas coast, 293 are unavailable (State and Federal preserves and parks), 56 miles are fully developed and only 26 are still available. It seems in a few short years affordable property on the Texas coast may be a thing of the past.

Are you considering a vacation home or coastal investment? Let me help you find the beach house you've been looking for! I am a buyer's agent specializing in Texas coastal vacation property. There are a lot of issues and obstacles to navigate when purchasing a vacation property. Who is looking out for you? Protect yourself with an experienced buyer's agent who will represent you and your interests. Contact me to find your vacation property today!

Best,

Marcus Cox
Avalar Coastal Real Estate
512.921.3111
marcus@avalaraustin.com